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IMPACT ON INDIAN APPLICANTS
What This Really Means for Indian Tech Workers and Engineers
Let’s be blunt about the impact. India accounts for the largest share of H-1B registrations by a massive margin. Every year, Indian nationals represent approximately 70-75% of all H-1B visa approvals. Any change to the H-1B system disproportionately affects Indians — for better or worse.
Here’s how the 2026 changes break down by applicant profile:
Winners: Senior Indian Engineers and Architects ($130K+ salary)
If you are a senior software engineer, solutions architect, data science lead, or engineering manager being offered $130,000+ by a U.S. employer, your chances of H-1B selection just dramatically improved. Your registration will likely qualify as Level III or Level IV, giving you 3-4 entries in the lottery compared to the single entry under the old random system.
Combined with the expected drop in total registrations (due to the $100,000 fee discouraging some employers), senior-level Indian professionals may see selection rates above 50% — compared to the roughly 30% rate under the old random lottery.
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Winners: Indians Already in the U.S. on OPT/STEM OPT
If you completed your Master’s degree at a U.S. university and are currently working on STEM OPT, you are in the strongest position possible. You are exempt from the $100,000 fee, you qualify for the 20,000 additional Master’s cap slots, and if your employer registers you at a competitive wage level, your odds of selection are the highest they have ever been.
Losers: Entry-Level Indian IT Workers (Under $85K salary)
If you are a junior developer or analyst being offered a Level I wage ($60,000-$75,000), your chances of selection dropped by roughly 50%. You now get only one entry in the lottery while senior roles get four. The system is explicitly designed to move away from “mass low-wage filings” — and entry-level positions from Indian IT outsourcing firms were the primary target.
Losers: Applicants Applying from India (Not Already in the U.S.)
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The $100,000 fee makes it economically painful for employers to sponsor you. Even if you are a strong candidate, many companies will redirect that $100,000 toward hiring locally or sponsoring someone already in the U.S. who is exempt from the fee.
Losers: Indian IT Outsourcing Companies
Companies that historically filed hundreds or thousands of H-1B registrations for relatively lower-paid positions will see their success rate decline. DHS explicitly stated the new rule targets employers who “flood the selection pool with lower-skilled foreign workers paid at low wages.” While Nasscom claims the impact will be “marginal” because Indian firms have already reduced H-1B dependency, the directional shift is unmistakable.
The bottom line: The 2026 H-1B changes create a clear divide. If you are experienced, well-paid, and ideally already in the U.S., you are better off than before. If you are early-career and applying from India, you face longer odds and higher barriers than at any point in H-1B history.
[NEXT PAGE: Strategies to Maximize Your Odds in the March 2026 Lottery →]
