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THE NEW WEIGHTED LOTTERY
The Random Lottery Is Dead — Here’s What Replaced It
For years, the H-1B lottery worked like this: every eligible registration had an equal chance of being selected, regardless of salary, skill level, or experience. A Level 1 entry-level position paid $60,000 had the same odds as a Level 4 senior role paid $200,000.
That system is gone.
Under the new DHS final rule, effective February 27, 2026, H-1B registrations will now be entered into the selection pool multiple times based on the wage level of the offered position:
Wage Level IV (Senior/Expert): 4 entries in the lottery pool — estimated 61% chance of selection (up 107% from the random lottery)
Wage Level III (Experienced/Mid-Senior): 3 entries — estimated 46% chance (up 55%)
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Wage Level II (Qualified/Early Career): 2 entries — estimated 30% chance (roughly the same as before)
Wage Level I (Entry-Level): 1 entry — estimated 14% chance (down 50% from the random lottery)
The math is simple: the higher your salary, the more lottery tickets you get. A Level IV registration is four times more likely to be selected than a Level I registration.
According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the new rule is projected to increase the average compensation of selected applicants by $9,554 (8.5%), from $112,309 under the old system to $121,863 under the new one.
What determines your wage level?
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The wage level is based on the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code for your position and the area of intended employment. The Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) database assigns four wage levels to each occupation in each geographic area.
Your employer must now select the SOC code and work location at the time of registration — before the lottery even happens. This was not required before and represents a major procedural change.
The critical implication for Indian applicants: if your employer is registering you for a Level I or Level II position, your chances just dropped significantly. If they can justify a Level III or Level IV position based on your qualifications and the role requirements, your chances improved dramatically.
[NEXT PAGE: The $100,000 Fee — Who Pays It and Who Is Exempt →]
